Canada’s CYA warning

It could be nothing

https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/corp/nero/nere/2017/2017-04-26-1200.cfm?utm_source=twitter-main&utm_medium=link&utm_campaign=mac

 

Report highlights:

  • Overall rating to be held at “strong evidence of problematic conditions”.
  • Evidence of overvaluation at the national level has been downgraded from strong to moderate. It is now present in six centers instead of eight.
  • Evidence of overvaluation has increased from moderate to strong in Victoria, as fundamentals are not keeping up with higher prices. There is also moderate evidence of price acceleration and overheating, leading to strong overall evidence of problematic conditions.
  • Conditions have improved in Regina, Montréal and Québec relative to home prices.
  • Overbuilding has gone down from eight centers to six.
  • In Moncton and St John’s, the supply of homes is adjusting to the demand.
  • Toronto and Hamilton continue to face price acceleration, overvaluation and overheating. Price growth has intensified and demand is outpacing supply in the rental, resale and new home markets.
  • Vancouver’s housing market continues to show strong evidence of problematic conditions due to moderate evidence of price acceleration and strong evidence of overvaluation.
  • Markets in the Prairies continue to show moderate to strong evidence of overbuilding.

CMHC defines “problematic conditions” as imbalances in the housing market. Imbalances occur when overbuilding, overvaluation, overheating and price acceleration – or combinations thereof – depart significantly from historical averages. For examples, please consult the Overview section of the national report.

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