I had a recent comment asking “….curious how many folks are paying attention?”
The short answer is not many people read what I write. I’m taking the “if you build it, they will come” thought process. I hope that someone comes across this info and gives them enough info to stop and think before they risk a life savings on a place to live. The reality is there aren’t that many people searching the web for editorial content on real estate. The news, real estate agents, mortgage brokers are screaming get in now before you get priced out!
No one, including myself, wants what I read or write to be true. No one wants to admit or hear that they are at the precipice of another terrible financial calamity. Can so many data points that lead me and many other’s to believe that the fed has created a bubble that they will not be able to fix? This is deja vu. I was there when everyone was a stock market expert and could do no wrong investing in upstart internet companies. But then there was the likes of Pets.com; an internet darling one day and bankrupt a few months after IPO. Is SnapChat really worth more than eBay? more than Sprint? More than CBS, Corning? Smells like a bubble to me.
I was there watching so many people become real estate agents, mortgage brokers and owners of multiple properties in 2006. I watched as home prices escalated out of our reach and I found blogs like this that led me to believe that there wasn’t a reason to chase the market.
At various points in time I have learned invaluable information from similar blogs. I’m always reading doctorhousingbubble.com I also think the data that https://www.mhanson.com/blog/ shares is invaluable. Before we bought our home in 2010 I read http://www.calculatedriskblog.com a lot. Back then, there was also an active blog about westside real estate as well as one that I thought was called Manhattan Beach Confidential but that URL seems to be taken over by a real estate agent. This isn’t information that sells newspapers or generates traffic. It’s bad news, that so far has proven to be completely wrong and/or incredible mistimed.
I hope someone takes a grain of what I write and does more research and takes a step back and says maybe now is not the time to write an offer for more than appraisal. Maybe now is not the time to buy some Amazon or Apple stock. Maybe now is the time to just sit back and watch and wait. I started to write “Nothing bad ever came from waiting” but that’s not 100% true. The Nasdaq is up 24% year to date! By sitting back and “waiting” I have not participated in any of that. In the same period we might guess that real estate is up 5%. A 5% gain on a million dollar home is a healthy return. I made 0%.
I could be wrong. It could be different this time. But if I’m not….