If you’re not familiar with the term, ‘confirmation bias’ suggests that once we’ve invested time and emotional energy into developing a worldview, we’ll then seek information to confirm that view.
After writing about the economy for so many years, I’m now so convinced that we can’t print our way to prosperity that I find myself seeing signs confirming this view everywhere, every single day. So that’s the danger to be aware of when listening to me. I’m going to keep repeating this mantra and Im going to keep finding data that supports this view.
I feel the same way. Everyday I see signs and more evidence that we are on the precipice of something catastrophic. It may not be the tech bubble, or the real estate bubble but it’s a something bubble and has the potential to hurt a lot of people.
BUT, maybe I’m wrong. I have been wrong for 18 months when I sold all of my stocks to cash. I missed out on ~50% plus I had/have investments that will only increase if the stock market goes down (and those have all been losers).
I can’t help but wonder if I’m wrong. Am I sitting in my bubble reading only information that supports my thesis? Maybe but now I can no longer change my mind. I couldn’t in my right mind invest in stocks right now. I can’t in my right mind invest in real estate right now. So I have to wait. Will I be waiting 6 months, years? If I wait that long am I proving myself right or is a broken clock right twice a day?